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However, if Greece could escape its debtors’ prison – which involves detailed monitoring of the government’s actions by the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund and is seen as an affront to national pride – Tsipras might conceivably win a future election. Failing that, he might at least avoid an electoral wipeout and live to fight another day.
But complete escape from surveillance after the bailout deal ends isn’t realistic – and Tsipras himself probably knows that, though he is keen to tell the Greek people otherwise. Too much money is at stake to leave Athens to its own devices.
The euro zone and IMF have lent the country about 260 billion euros since 2010. Without monitoring, there would be nothing to stop Tsipras giving full expression to his populist tendencies. He might unwind reforms to pensions, labour markets and public spending. The fiscal deficit might balloon again.
The obvious way of getting Greece to stick to its side of the bargain is to dribble out the debt relief as and when Athens hits milestones. But this will require continued monitoring of the economy. Debt relief alone may not be sufficient for Greece to tap the bond markets to meet its financing needs – especially once the European Central Bank ends its bond-buying programme. Athens will probably also need a precautionary credit line from the euro zone. But such a safety net would come with conditions and supervision.
This would create a problem for Tsipras as he would then struggle to tell a good story to the Greek electorate. He has three main options.
The most sensible approach would be to cooperate with the creditors in the coming months, especially over the next review of the current bailout programme. Technical staff are due in Athens today to start discussions.
Although the review should be less politically charged than the one which ended in June, Tsipras would still have to swallow some unpleasant medicine – for example, by making it harder for workers to strike. The upside is that he would gain goodwill with creditors in advance of the debt relief talks, receive another loan that he could use to stock his war chest and win plaudits from private investors.
All this might give a fair wind to the economy, which is expected to grow about 2 percent this year. Greece may then conceivably exceed its deficit targets, allowing Tsipras to take measures to soften the blow of the planned pension and tax reforms. This seems to be the prime minister’s current strategy. At the weekend, he called for the review to be completed “with great speed”.
Tsipras’ normal approach, however, is to drag out negotiations rather than go for a quick win – before ultimately coming to heel when he sees there are no other good choices. If he does this, Greece will limp along but not generate goodwill. It will also need more intense monitoring once the bailout ends. Tsipras’ final option is a mad dash for freedom. This would involve calling an early election as soon as the bailout programme ends but without reaching a deal on debt relief or getting a precautionary credit line. Tsipras could tell voters he’d escaped the debtors’ prison and there was no more surveillance by foreigners.
The snag is that the freedom would be short-lived. Come 2019, Greece would be back in the prison’s high-security wing. Tsipras himself would by then probably no longer be prime minister but would have handed a poisoned chalice to the opposition.
Such a strategy would be crazy for Greece and isn’t Tsipras’ current Plan A. But it is unfortunately a scenario that can’t be totally dismissed.