Last Update: 13:15
German policy shifts
TurkeyÎ„s rule of law has deteriorated since the failed coup one year ago, and has flipped GermanyÎ„s Social Democrats (SPD) on the matter of TurkeyÎ„s EU candidacy. In April, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel expressed his hopes that Turkey could remain a candidate for EU membership. By August, he had given up that position in light of AnkaraÎ„s aggressive actions. Martin Schulz, the SPD chancellor candidate and longtime advocate of TurkeyÎ„s membership, has taken a similar step, calling for an end to talks. During SundayÎ„s televised chancellor debate, Merkel stated what has been obvious for months: "There cannot be a Turkish accession to the EU."
MerkelÎ„s comments hardly say anything new. Last week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said in Brussels that Turkey had already taken huge steps away from Europe, making membership impossible. An official decision to expel Turkey from talks could come as early as this weekendÎ„s foreign ministersÎ„ meeting or at an EU summit at the end of October. Making good on the unavoidable would be a dramatic turn of events after 12 years: slamming the door to the EU on Turkey.
Juncker had previously warned that Erdogan will have good reason to blame the EU for the failure. However, that would not make the damage any worse. An end to accession talks could also be an end to financial support for accession. So far, suspending payments has been illegal, although the EU has been paying just a small portion of them since 2013.
Turkey never seriously tried
Turkey-EU relations could hardly get any worse. A July meeting between TurkeyÎ„s foreign minister and the EUÎ„s foreign affairs representative showed how little chance there was at renewed progress.
The EU ending accession talks would be unprecedented in its history, but at most symbolic. In reality, talks have been on ice since December, when the Council of the European Union refused to open the next chapter in the negotiation process. Negotiations have effectively gone nowhere since their start 12 years ago because Turkey has repeatedly refused to recognize CyprusÎ„ membership in the EU, an island whose northern half remains occupied by the Turkish military. Even without TurkeyÎ„s dramatic descent into dictatorship in the last year, this alone shows that Turkey was never really serious about EU membership.
EU social democrats were the most hopeful for TurkeyÎ„s membership in 2005. At the time, Erdogan was TurkeyÎ„s EU-friendly prime minister. That hope waned as Erdogan moved ever further away from European values and, with them, EU accession criteria.
Angela Merkel, who was at the time parliamentary opposition leader, spoke out against membership even then. Her conservatives were satisfied with a "privileged" partnership for Turkey. She continued her resistance to membership even after she became chancellor, which meant inheriting negotiations from her predecessor, Gerhard Schroder of the SPD.
Not the ultimate end But even if accession talks should come to an end, Turkey and the EU are tightly connected both politically and economically. The German government needs to maintain lines of communication with Ankara so it can look after the 50 German citizens currently sitting in Turkish prisons. Turkey wants to maintain its important customs union with Europe, or even expand it, which the EU can use to ensure Turkey continues holding up its end of the refugee deal. Security issues regarding NATO and confronting "Islamic State" are additional points on which the EU and Turkey need and want to cooperate.
What about the danger of Erdogan completely turning away from the West and cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin? Although Erdogan has not threatened TurkeyÎ„s NATO membership, relations with the Trump administration are tense. In addition to energy, analysts in Brussels worry that Russia could supply Turkey weapons, such as missile systems.
An end to EU accession talks would be painful, but not the end to all relations with Turkey. However, it is clear that Turkey is not a European state with respect to Article 49 of the Lisbon Treaty, which outlines accession. Holding TurkeyÎ„s feet to the fire could be a lesson for other member candidates, such as in the Balkans. Should Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Serbia or Kosovo stray from EU membership criteria, the process can be reversed for them, as well.